原标题：稳定和可持续的油价对油气公司更为有利

中国石化新闻网讯 据Edge财经新闻1月14日消息称，我们预计油价将在60- 65美元/桶(RM244-RM265)之间波动，并在2020年达到65美元/桶的平均水平。

总体而言，原油价格上涨有利于鼓励油气勘探和生产企业的持续支出，但我们认为，在当前的经营环境下，稳定和可持续的油价对油气公司更为有利。它是为了使未来资本支出的适当规划能够在极端环境中使用可预测的参数而不是预测的数字来进行。也就是说，我们了解到，大多数勘探与生产商都对当前60-70美元/桶的油价感到满意，因为目前海上生产的生产成本在30-40美元/桶的范围内，而在陆上生产，成本甚至更低，这将确保当前海上和陆上活动的乐观势头将保持下去。

因此，考虑到目前的运营环境，我们重申我们的观点，即参与钻井、制造和船舶供应商(浮式生产储油和卸油(FPSO)和海上支持船)的本地油气服务公司将继续受益于2020年蓬勃发展的海上活动。对于上游服务行业，我们仍然看好大洋企业有限公司，因为该公司有望从与栢达纳石油公司的合作中受益，为勘探开发公司提供船舶，并开展更积极的海上维护工作。我们也看好布米亚马达公司，因为它改善了操作条件，同时也是马来西亚最大的FPSO供应商。我们还看好Dialog Group Bhd，这主要是因为该公司从其油库业务中获得了稳定的经常性收入，同时也是即将投入运营的Pengerang综合石油设施的主要受益者之一。

对于油气行业下游板块，我们对马来西亚国家石油公司化工集团公司、马来西亚国家石油贸易公司和马来西亚天然气公司。尽管存在行业特定的挑战，我们认为下游产品的需求仍然强劲，外部干扰是暂时的，不会阻碍各自公司未来的发展。

曹海斌 摘译自 Edge财经新闻

原文如下：

Stable, sustainable oil price seen favourable to O G firms

We expect the oil price to trade between the US$60-US$65 (RM244-RM265) per barrel (pb) range and to average at US$65pb in 2020.

While in general a higher crude oil price is favourable to encourage the continued spending of oil and gas (O G) exploration and production (E P) producers, we opine that a stable and sustainable oil price will be even more favourable to O G companies in the current operating climate. It is to enable a proper planning for future capital expenditure to be conducted using predictable parameters rather than projecting numbers in an extreme environment. That said, we understand that most E P producers are comfortable at the current US$60-US$70pb oil price level as current production costs range from US$30-US$40pb for offshore production while for onshore production, the cost is even lower which will ensure the current upbeat momentum of offshore and onshore activities will be sustained.

Hence, looking at the current operating climate we reiterate our view that local O G service companies involved in drilling, fabrication and vessel providers (floating production storage and offloading [FPSO] and offshore support vessels) will continue to benefit from the upbeat offshore activities going into 2020. For the upstream services segment, we remain bullish on Dayang Enterprise Bhd (“buy”; target price [TP]: RM2.69) as the company can expect to benefit from its synergy with Perdana Petroleum Bhd in providing vessels to E P players and more active offshore maintenance works. We also like Bumi Armada Bhd (“buy”; TP: 56 sen) due to its improving operational conditions as well as its position as the largest FPSO provider in Malaysia. We are also favourable towards Dialog Group Bhd (“buy”; TP: RM3.83) specifically due to its stable recurring income from its tank farm business and due to it being one of the main beneficiaries of the soon-to-be operational Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex.

For the downstream sub-sector of the O G industry, we remain positive on Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (“buy”; TP: RM8.77), Petronas Dagangan Bhd (“buy”; TP: RM27.75) and Gas Malaysia Bhd (“buy”; TP: RM3.11) as despite industry-specific challenges, we opine that demand for downstream products remains robust and that external disruptions are temporary in nature which will not halt the respective companies’ growth going forward.

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