Honest Predictor for Binary Options

Honest Predictor indicator (iHP) predicts trend direction at a given "expiry time" making it particularly suitable for traders operating with Binary Options. Its main features are:

• "Honest" statistical information provided about the level of reliability of the trend predictions.
• No redrawing, no recalculation performed. The indicator is stable and calculated only on closed bars (not on ticks).
• Positions outcome evaluated on actual closing prices.
• based on the RSI technical indicator within a multi-timeframe confirmation strategy.

The indicator is optimized for H1 timeframe giving best results with an expiry time from 1 to 3 bars (that is, from 1 to 3 hours).

Usage

Main Parameters

• Duration of backtesting in days: history duration (in days) on the chart for the purposes of the evaluation of indicator accuracy (=percentage of successful positions), statistical reliability level and visual analysis.
• Indicator threshold: minimum threshold of the indicator for generating an alert.
• Expiry Time in bars: assumed expiration for the binary options suggested by the indicator.

The default value of the duration of the backtesting is 30 days, so that positions are numerous enough to make the accuracy statistically significant. However, the user should also try to reduce it, so as to get indications on a more recent statistics paying attention to avoid too small number of positions that could lead to "POORLY RELIABLE" or "UNRELIABLE" conditions (see below). In the latter case, no alert is provided by the indicator. These negative conditions could also be due to an accuracy that is too close to the "random" 50% value.

To get high accuracy, the user should try to adjust both the Indicator Threshold (between 0 and 10) and the Expiry Time in bars (typically from 1 to 4).

Remember that Binary Options often require to trade with an accuracy higher than 65% in order to ensure long-term profit.

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